Experts expect the real estate market this year to have many bright spots that will make real estate buyers and sellers more positive.
Market sentiment changes in the face of positive signals
Information about the real estate market recently The Ministry of Construction said that from the end of 2022, the real estate market has encountered many difficulties, illiquidity, many ongoing real estate projects have to be suspended or extended or postponed.
This situation continues to last until the first half of 2023, mainly due to problems related to legal issues of the project and in accessing credit loans, issuing bonds and raising capital from customers, leading to enterprises lacking capital to delay or suspend project implementation.
The number of newly approved and completed housing developments decreased compared to previous years, leading to a limited supply to the market, but housing prices tended to increase, exceeding the financial ability of the majority of people wishing to buy to use.
However, according to the Ministry of Construction, in the last months of the year, the interest rates of banks lending to buy real estate are being adjusted to a downtrend, the real estate market has started to have positive changes, the number of searches for transactions in the land and apartment segments has a good recovery and supply from new projects, Transactions appear more and more. Accordingly, the number of transactions of all types of real estate at the end of the year increased compared to the beginning of the year, proving that the real estate market is gradually recovering.
According to many real estate experts, the real estate market has positive movements thanks to the supportive policy information effect. But now that the peak of the information has passed, the main story of this year’s market will probably be how effective the support policy and corporate restructuring plan will be and how the market sentiment will evolve.
Experts still expect the real estate market this year to have many bright spots and have growth again from the second half of the year.
The first basis for this belief is Resolution No. 18-NQ/TW dated June 16, 2022 on land use management, directing the completion of amendments to the Land Law and related laws to ensure uniformity and consistency. Accordingly, the amended Land Law was officially passed on the morning of January 18, 2024 at the 5th Extraordinary Session, XV National Assembly. The amended Law on Housing and Real Estate Business was passed earlier at the 6th Session, XV National Assembly, November 2023. All 3 laws take effect from January 1, 2025.
At the same time, from the central to local levels are making efforts to remove “legal obstacles” for hundreds of real estate projects.
In a letter issued on December 17, 2023, the Prime Minister requested the State Bank to direct to continue reviewing and having practical and effective solutions to promote credit lending to real estate enterprises; strengthen direction, urging and guiding commercial banks so that enterprises, real estate projects and home buyers can access credit capital more favorably, promptly remove difficulties in capital and cash flow…
In fact, towards the end of the year, credit growth will change more positively. According to data from the State Bank, by the end of 2023, credit growth of the whole banking industry will reach about 13.5%.
Real estate-related credit has been the main driver of total credit growth for years. The launch of projects at the end of the year along with falling interest rates may continue to be a supporting force to promote credit demand again.
Real estate prices are still expected to rise
With the positive news, the sentiment of the market in general has changed markedly. A report on the real estate consumer sentiment index showed that the real estate market sentiment index for the first half of this year increased by 3 points compared to the second half of 2023.
The market sentiment index earlier this year was boosted by market satisfaction, confidence that property prices will rise well in the future, housing affordability, assessments of market conditions, policy and interest rates all increased.
Some real estate experts see a more positive sentiment of real estate buyers and sellers as an opportunity for this year’s market to develop and overcome outstanding difficulties in 2023.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh assessed that the real estate market will enter a prosperous period from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025. He expects this period to record strong economic development, investment in the real estate sector to grow.
The financial potential of investors and the improved monetary environment lead to a broad-based recovery in supply and liquidity, real estate prices in this period will also improve simultaneously with supply and liquidity.
The expert said that after the first quarter of 2026, the real estate industry may gradually enter a stable period. The market continues to grow well in liquidity and price, and there are many types of real estate.
According to economist Nguyen Minh Phong, recently, the world economic situation has significantly affected the development of the real estate industry.
Going into this year, the market will continue to face many intertwined opportunities and challenges, but the market will overcome the most difficult period, recording more positive than negative moves, both in terms of total supply and aggregate demand, both inputs and outputs.
