The market is opening up new opportunities when project legality is guaranteed, interest rates are reduced, investors apply many preferential policies and especially real estate enters the recovery cycle.
Supply decreases, apartment prices increase
The real estate industry has recorded many housing projects, mainly apartments, that have been implemented, started or introduced to the market since the beginning of the year. The report of the Research Institute of Dat Xanh Services lists about 30 projects stretching from North to South that have been implemented, of which the southern region has a larger number, concentrated in Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Long An.
Some projects with good implementation progress have given customers a reservation deposit. This unit said that market confidence has gradually improved compared to previous months, especially recorded outstanding transactions in some projects in the North with affordable selling prices, legal and good construction progress, in line with the affordability of customers.
These changes, although positive, have not been able to fill the gap of supply shortage in the past 2 years due to legal issues. The report of the Ministry of Construction indicates that the supply of the real estate market in 2023 continues to be limited in segments. The 42 completed commercial housing projects only provided the market with about 16,000 units, down 54% from the previous year.
In a longer-term survey, in about 6 years in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, JLL Vietnam also showed that the supply of new apartments has decreased sharply. If in 2017-2018, the supply of the two markets is about 40,000 units / year, by 2022-2023, the number will decrease by 75% to about 10,000 units / year.
According to the Ministry of Construction, scarce supply in recent years has caused apartment prices to tend to increase, especially in the central area of 2 big cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. A report by a research unit also shows that apartment prices in Hanoi have increased for 20 consecutive quarters, by the end of 2023 and within 5 years, apartment prices have increased by about 77%.
Experts say that apartment prices will continue or at least flatten, unlikely to decrease in the context of scarce supply and “extinct” affordable housing. Along with the increase in prices, if buying apartments for investment, collecting stable monthly money, the investment rate of apartments is still superior to other types of real estate.
Data from Batdongsan.com.vn shows that affordable apartments (priced below VND 2 billion / unit) and mid-end apartments (VND 2-5 billion) have investment rates (rents / apartment prices) of about 6-8% / year, much higher than bank deposit interest rates in this period. Buyers can benefit compoundingly from year-over-year increases in apartment prices and good investment rates.
Opportunities of people with regular cash flow
The real estate market is believed to have entered the most difficult period and there is a clearer recovery from the second half of this year. Many positive policies from the Government support this recovery, such as approving the Construction Industry Development Strategy to decompress, reduce the load on large cities, and bring people to surrounding cities.
New laws such as the Law on Land, Law on Housing, Law on Real Estate Business are in the process of completing the legal framework to be applied soon. Some projects have been cleared of legal obstacles, contributing to adding more supply and improving confidence for home buyers.
Lending interest rates at banks have also fallen sharply, especially with real estate falling to 5-6% per year, creating favorable conditions for people and businesses to access capital. CBRE Vietnam assessed that over the past decade, the stability of lending rates has helped home buyers easily access loans. Interest rates appear to be stabilizing again from mid-2023, with mortgage demand likely to recover in the near future.
Since the beginning of the year, many investors have continued to implement many preferential policies for customers when buying products. Significant such as payment gap of only 1% / month, extension of payment schedule for 3-4 years; Only pay 20-30% to receive the house immediately, increase the interest rate support period to 18-24 months and grace the principal period of 32-48 months.
Mr. Pham Anh Khoi, Director of Dat Xanh Services Institute of Economics – Finance – Real Estate (DXS-FERI) said that compared to the previous year, the number of customers interested in searching and asking to buy real estate products tended to increase sharply. Customers with financial potential are at the best time to make a purchase with a variety of choices and preferential policies.
Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan – Director of Batdongsan.com.vn Southern Region – stated that after the crisis period, the market has a stronger purification. The projects that reach buyers mostly have standard legalities, guaranteed schedules and reasonable prices, with competitive payment policies. Home buyers thereby avoid buying poor quality products or “young rice”.
Sharing the same view with Mr. Tuan, Mr. Vo Hong Thang – Director of DKRA Group’s consulting and project development services – said that at this time, most projects ensure legal assurance before opening for sale, this is a sufficient condition so buyers can rest assured every time they drop money. The current market is difficult, so investors are still cautious about selling prices, interest rate support, principal grace for customers to buy products.
Talking about investment opportunities, Mr. Thang said that this market is suitable for customers who have regular cash flow and can earn profits. But how much profit is made depends on the investor’s selection experience. Factors include choice of selling price, payment method; location, select projects with potential for price increase, potential for leasing; development experience of the investor and finally analyze the cash flow of debt repayment so that it is reasonable.
